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Transition Plan

For: Digital Talking Book Distribution Analysis. Task 4 - Transition Plan (Final Report : August 12, 2006)

Section 3 – Multiyear Transition Plan

3.1 Estimates and Assumptions Used

The estimates and assumptions used in analyses by the project team for the development of the multiyear transition plan are shown in Appendix 1. These assumptions and estimated values of production factors were used in a multiyear computer-based planning model developed for use as a planning tool, which has been provided to NLS.

Estimates for DTB production and distribution operations are based upon results from the DTB Distribution Study, while those used for DTBM production and repair are primarily based upon results from the Machine Transition Study and secondarily upon NLS staff estimates. Logic from the computer-based models developed for both projects was integrated into a single multiyear planning model, incorporating both audio book and playback machine operations.

As described in Section 1, the current baseline multiyear transition plan is that which was submitted by NLS to Congress on July 17, 2006. This is effectively a consensus plan for the All Mass-Duplication DTB Distribution System, developed using results from the ManTech planning model as documented in the two Transition Plan draft reports, results from other analyses performed using the planning model which were provided to NLS, and from independent analyses performed by NLS.

The multiyear baseline transition plans for playback machine and audio book operations are described in the two sections below. In those instances in which actual (i.e., expected) activity levels are expected to differ significantly from activity levels associated directly with budgeted expenditures for the particular year, the expected levels for that year are used for long-term planning and such differences are noted.

3.2 Transition Plan for Playback Machines

The transition plan for playback machine operations is shown in Appendix 2 and covers nine fiscal years, i.e., FY 2006—FY 2014. While not all playback machine-related activities are shown, those that constitute the majority of total activity and associated costs, i.e., for machine production and repair, are included.

The computer-based planning model was updated with the most recent CBM repair parts inventory and procurement plans data, obtained from NLS, and uses CBM inventory data as of the beginning of FY 2006. The number of CBM repairs to be performed in the future will effectively be constrained by the maximum number of repairs that can be performed with available repair parts (i.e., labor, although a constraint, would ultimately not be the binding constraint). The estimates are based upon February, 2006 CBM repair parts inventories augmented with planned CBM repair parts lifetime buys during FY2006—FY2008 (excluding batteries, which are expected to be available for purchase beyond FY 2008, and for which lifetime buys are unnecessary).

3.3 Transition Plan for Audio Books

The transition plan for audio book operations is shown in Appendix 3 and covers six fiscal years, from FY 2007 through FY 2012. While not all audio book-related activities are shown, those that constitute the majority of total activity and associated costs are included. The key points are as follows:

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Posted on 2006-12-05